Are 2 strokes doomed?

[Puffs]

Yes Guesi, that is why I said:

My €0.02: if mankind wants to survive we'll have to finally realise and accept it is on a doomsday course, and adapt that course. In what sense, and if it can effectively change, are entirely different matters

Particularly the 'if it can effectively change' bit is very doubtful.

The problem is: it costs to change. Those costs come at various levels, starting with psychological, but also in the sense of actual money, and a perceived impact to the quality of life. And those costs are direct and personal. Tangible. You will be limited, and you will feel it.

True, obviously not changing also comes with an expectation cost, which is actually quite enormous (though what you say there is logically impossible, you probably misquoted that statistic). Those expectations are well documented, and range from 30% of mankind having to relocate, to global food shortages and mass extinction, so don't worry about little details like 1.5 or 3°C. That's what I called 'a doomsday course'. But it's an expectation, and it's in the future. Not directly tangible now, for most at least. We do not feel anything, now, so should we take some nerd's word for it? Most people won't. Democratically it's a non-starter.

And indeed, then there's the issue that all of mankind has to change, and most importantly: those with the biggest footprint. And they're not going to, it seems. China appears to want to burn all that coal they have, before becoming carbon neutral. So then all we can do, is put our finger in a minuscule hole in the dike, while half a mile on there's a 3 mile section of that dike missing. Now putting your finger in the dike will cost you (you can't go ride your bike in the Ligurian Alps if you have to stay at that dike with your finger), so most will want to get their finger out.

Anyway, CO2 & greenhouse gasses is what causes climate change, and while our 2T's are rather inefficient (so produce relatively much CO2), overall they are not a significant contributor. In puffing out particulate matter causing smog they are a more obvious source, and for that they may be banned, particularly in low emission zones.

[Guesi]

We all won´t change from Devil to angel in one week
But sometimes it is good to think about our actions.
Maybe we can begin with small changes (is it necessary to drive a short distance with car or motorcycle or can I take a walk, or can I save some electricity by turning out the light if I don´t need it and so on)

Simply begin with small steps...

I know : bad habits die hard

And I think that they will let us drive our 2 strokers because they are such a small number that they wonß t invest so much work making a law for such a small number of vehicles.

As long as they don´ t take away my chocolate cookies, everything is o.k. for me

[Gerryman Ts125]

I drove 2t's until two months ago (tarted up my 1986 ts125) Then sold it for £150 more than it cost me in 86.

I was going to keep it until 31st of July 2026, when it would had become 40 years old.
But sold it to someone, who wanted it, and didn't mind waiting four years and 10 months, and they could just insure it and drive it mot and road tax for free.
But they shipped it back to Poland were as they said 'They don't care a fuc& about what Europe or the wider world thinks of them, and most people burn trees, fossil fuels and old oil to keep warm' (and cook, and distill free alcohol.)
As the place (like other post communist community's) is so hard to police normal laws never mind a clean air act. As it is so sparsely populated.

And the wild animals don't complain about anything (well we're all just tame educated simians really).

So who are we really kidding? that cutting down our own carbon footprint by doing something, means something for our grandchildrens grandchildren. As it does not matter.

As explained earlier on this thread, industries can or don't want to change quickly. Unless they have a patent for a constant velocity motor, that uses fresh air, or water. So people that are worried about them being not able to drive a motorcycle that emits a unhealthy amount of the very thing that's going to be banned, about their transport?
They are a pimple on a pimple on a amoeba's knee compared with what industry's are presently doing and have done to this Planets shi7e
Glad people are discussing this, as it would be better than accually doing something about it.

Maybe the biggest polluting industries, will rethink their tack, if the common people stop purchasing their goods. It used to be the sticker mantra was 'Nuclear power no thanks'.
Will become 'Cleaner planet for all forever'.

[Guesi]

You are right about the industry.
And you are right about the "power of the consumer".

The change must be made on several "fronts".

But the opinion " I don´t care, because it don´t bother me now" is a little bit egoistic...

And certainly it will bother our children and grandchildren....

And about the polish people:

Poland will be the next country to leave the EC...

And I think it will not be good for them...
At the moment they receive far more money from the EC than they pay.

But it is their choice....

[Puffs]

Pity you sold that TS, with such a track record, Gerryman TSless... It may have gone on to the German market, where prices are higher.

Correct, change will take time. In due time, new technologies will help in some areas, but still we all want things that costs resources, and our total footprint cannot be sustained by earth. Yet if you think about it, in an unprejudiced manner, these problems could have been anticipated centuries ago (as it is a direct consequence of drivers inherited from the evolution process), and the Club of Rome forecast these issues formally, loud and clear, already in the late 60's. Yet mankind has chosen not to react. An earlier response would have necessitated far less draconian measures.

But now, with some 8 billion people on the world, indeed what we'd have to do is roughly not heat our houses, and only walk or maybe cycle for transport. It's too late, IMO. Too late for an elegant solution, and the only effective solutions now are not very attractive...

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

[Gerryman Ts125]

The person that purchased my Ts, sent one of his drivers (the driver and tail lift Luton van was close to me delivering in the East Coast of Scotland)
They were the one telling me that ' The Poles (he was a very proud Polish person) could survive the second World War winters, by burrowing into hillsides/underground, they can survive most things'.

Don't know if that was his bosses Far left of centre veiw though (like mines) The folks of most of these countries are not easily led nor foolish and well educated (although their political leaders leanings may be) the driver seemed more conversive in Anglo saxon, than my gutteral additions to it (can't speak Pole, but know people that can)
Can converse a little in Romanian as its not that far from my pigeon Italian.
But the Polish hate being told not to do anything, or they may lash out a bit, then sing a traditional song, whilst stomping you to sleep

[Gerryman Ts125]

Puffs thank you. The people that live here (in the UK) send their unrecyclables abroad, as they are running out of room to store in here now. They can bury it, like underground, but that was banned, so they send it to Malaysia or somewhere.
But they are going to ship it back to here (and Canada and the USA, Europe)
So unless they can find a way to use it. It will sit at the docks rotting away for the next two or three centuries, or until it self combust's.

By the power of the jolly yellow dwarf that give us star rays, to stay warm. Everybody no matter who, or where they live, have a say.

Acid rain may not be a problem nor the hole in the ozone layer, this time, we have to start to wake up and smell our own trash. We stand by and let the forests be chopped and burnt, and do nothing to stop the oceans be our new dumping ground.

Mother Earth, has started to become Mother Fuc&er, and she can only burn, crush and drown the problem

US


No not the fish nor the birds nor everything else, whilst we ruin it.
And they wonder why is there so many animal attacks??

[Puffs]

Thinking a bit more about this issue, I withdraw my rather callous 'it's too late'. True, it is too late for an effective and elegant solution, but it is not too late to find acceptable measures to try to mitigate the problems. And beyond that, we'll just have to see what comes.

Let's enjoy our 2T's while we still can.

[Guesi]

Agreed

[alexxx]

I am involved in environmental science and sustainability, this hype has been rising very quickly over the last few years.
If you follow the money you may understand why the climate industrial complex is pushing this.
Fear sells, if you write academic papers and research proposals they are better received if you follow the current hysteria. The chance of you gaining funding or a good peer review is very low if you do not follow the trend, you may also lose your credibility etc. There are academics who provide alternative views but they are not well considered.
It is the same with the media, fear sells.
Just consider who is making money and gaining power from all of this hype, if you are a huge land owner here in the UK you will benefit from free grants to build wind farms and large solar arrays, that same person cannot access North sea oil or gas so easily so now those hills with a few sheep become green gold mines, you get money to build your turbines and you get paid even when the wind does not blow.
Large companies can buy leases of the sea/bed to install offshore wind turbines...can you or I do those things? No. We could apply for one very small turbine we may even get some small help towards solar panels but it will be very limited and you will not even be able to supply all your own energy as you will not get permission for large enough turbines even if your garden or field is large.
These large land owners happen to mostly be in the house of lords or are foreign interests with links to those same people, follow the money.
The serfs are told, you are saving the planet, they will also pay more for this "green" energy through subsidies and taxes, their only benefit is that they think they are saving a planet.
Just look around you and question where this money is going to, who put up the wind turbines in your country? Sure there are some naive political believers but they can afford these huge costs.
Population is the biggest problem, even in clean modern countries. population is what affects sustainability, even sub saharan africa or mongolia can easily support a population that is compatible with it's resources but no one is talking about that...why? Because there is less money with less customers around, even third world countries in the poorest areas still need to buy manufactured products.
Look at the wind farm arrays backed up with diesel generators, look at 30,000 eco idiots flying into Glasgow...30,000!! why not use zoom or skype if you truly want to do your bit and make an example for the world to see?. I also have a hotel business and we benefit from some of these conference attendees as some will stay with us so at least we can make a wee bit money out of them.
Will they make any difference, no but every speaker will be looking for the largest scariest prediction headline as that means fame and more papers or exposure, just wait and see.
Look back over geological times, not newspaper times, you will find hard and visible evidence of global climate change over the last 4.6 billion years.
If climate change could so easliy be manipulated by man why not send some eco warriors to mars so they can run around in our MZ's and correct the martian atmosphere
"Greenhouse gas" is approx 98% water vapour in the form of clouds, there is a large hot orangey ball heating us from outside and another heating us from deep inside the earth.
Do your own independent research using the widest variety of sources and physical evidence, it is not easy but examining where the money trail goes and who ultimately benefits financially could be entertaining and interesting.
I note where vehicle pollution monitors are situated, always at heavy traffic deadspots and no other coverage to create an average that skewed data can be used to justify anything, if you create "clean" inner city zones does the wind not blow from out to in at these zones? If I fart outside your clean air zone, you may smell it inside, after clean air zones are in place monitoring times can be changed to obtain any result you like.
Yes, we all create pollution and we should try to minimise that and every particle does play a part, I merely question the measureability of the anthropological component of "climate change" Population is the problem, more people, more demand, more factories, more energy. you have arguements such as should the whole world be living at the highest consumer state, zero poverty everyone with a comfortable modern consumer lifestyle? or should we give up modern consumerisim, the luxury of housing and heating? endless debates.
As we are just small players we can do nothing about burdens placed upon us but we should question why and who and then make an informed decision.
I expect we are too small a group as classic vehicle owners to get all the blame but no doubt city by city more restrictions will be placed.
Follow the money and you usually find the reasons.
End of rant, I've got a two stroke to restore

[Guesi]

Follow the money.....

What about the oil companies etc. ?
How many governments were destryed because of oil ?
For example Iran in the 50´s .
There was British Petrol (BP) involved in these things (Mossadegh)

And how many wars were fought only because of oil ?
How many areas were polluted by oil ?

But in one point you are right.
The less we consume the better.

And surely there always were climate changes. But these changes were never as fast as now.

If the worlds clock is 24 hours long (since the world began) humans appeared onlöy in the last 3 seconds.
And these 3 seconds changed the world more then hundres of thousands years before.




Money is always a reason...
You can produce a super clean car or factory, but if it is to expensive, no one will buy it.

So producing cleaner power etc. must be a good deal for the people.

That´s the way it works in capitalistic countries

[Puffs]

Well Alex, I'm delighted to finally hear someone else too saying population is the source of the problem. It is so bleeding obvious, but structurally ignored. Recognising it is neither politically nor commercially popular, and doing something about it is simply not done. I think the common views and customs find their origin in our evolutionary drive to grow, and it comes with indiscriminatingly trying to expand & dominate your environment, and make things better for ourselves. All currently still living species have that drive, only man is by far the best at it.

Guesi, why always hit on oil companies? They're not doing anything else than other commercial enterprises. Sure, financially oil & gas are/were huge, and that's why wars were fought over it, by governments & countries. Just like over religion. And indeed, things goes wrong sometimes - as happens elsewhere too. If you don't want to use oil or gas, just don't buy it, and let me add one more question: How many questions can one man ask?

Btw, if earth exists for 24hours, I believe humans came about the last 2 minutes, not seconds. But it is not entirely clear where to put the boundary, I used Lucy, 6e6 years ago, and earth is 4.5e9 years old. The Cambrian explosion (of life) was about 6e8 years ago, so on a more sensible 24h clock of life we've been around the last quarter of an hour.
Anyway, the graph I showed earlier says it all

[Guesi]

Well you are right about the population.
But what is the solution about that ?

Mass suicide ? This would help

Education would be another way.
The more educated people are, the less children they have.

Contraception ?
Let´s ask the religions what they think about that.For example the catholic pope

Expand social security systems ?
If you donß t need 10 children to finance your retirement, then you will not produce them

You see, there are many ways to reduce population....

Oh I forgot one: WAR .....

It works as a kind of population regulation system


And about the oil companies:

They are NOT like other companies.....
I cannot remember that solar panel producers began a war to safe their profits

And by the way:
Shell (I am not 100% sure if it was this or any other of these companies) made an investigation about the future in the 80s that showed that -if people continued to use fossile oil rthe way they do- the environmental problems will evolve and will lead to the problems we have now.

This report was not published .
So they knew where the road leads but the tried to hide it in favour of their profits...

And the arument: if you don´t like it, don´t buy it is a killer argument.

Why not criticise something that goes wrong in my eyes ?

With the same logic I can say (like some time ago the americans used to say) love it or leave it, means if you don´ t like some things that happen in your country, leave it !

And finally: How many questions can one man ask ?
Never enough.....

[Puffs]

Thank you for sharing your insights!

I didn't plan to, initially, as I don't think this discussion will go anywhere, but let me honour you with a response.

Reducing the population:
Once we would have agreed (and you & Alex mentioned a few reasons why that is unlikely to happen soon), no, not via any of those rather absurd suggestions, or via other methods used earlier, which you forgot to mention. But I would guess by means similar to what China did, with their 1-child policy. That policy has been reviled extensively in the West, but I am certain it has been the most effective measure ever taken, and prevented us from being in an even worse situation.

The population boom is, IMO, not caused by any of the things you mention (lack of education, retirement planning), but simply by our species (just like many others) being able to procreate in numbers which are consistent with the historical mortality rates (i.e. as seen over the earlier parts of the evolution of our species). And have the drive to do so.
But we do not like to die, so we succeeded in managing also that a bit better, greatly reducing infant mortality, and thus causing the population boom. We managed part of it, not the entire process, we entirely forgot about the long-term effects of disrupting that process and the historical balance. And now we're up the creek, without a paddle in sight.

Oil companies: do not start or fight wars. Countries do. People do. OilCo's want to make money by finding & producing oil & gas. They employ oil men, not soldiers.

On that report, maybe Shell, maybe another OilCo (probably more of them), but those conclusions you mention are clearly common knowledge and were already widely published by the Club of Rome, as I said before, late 60's, early 70's. So nothing new there. And of course big companies do research and write reports, notes, memos, and the vast majority of those stay in-house. Of course they do, because it pertains to their business. What's wrong with that? If you want to research and investigate a topic, any topic, anybody is welcome to. But who pays for it decides what happens with it. This is common practise, all over the world. If I buy a spark plug, I decide what to do with it.

On your "they knew where the road leads but the tried to hide it in favour of their profits", can I politely point out that some vendors of parts for 2T MZ's know exactly what those parts are used for, and the environmental effects of that use, but still continue to sell those parts? Exactly the same.
But all of that is water under the bridge. Society wants oil, gas & MZ parts, and if company X doesn't sell it, then company Y will. Change like this only comes from the demand side, not the supply side. As long as there is money to be made, somebody will do it.

I do not know what you mean by "a killer argument", but it really is like that: if you do not want oil, for whatever reason: just do not buy it. If you do not want to eat meat: do not buy it. And then you do not contribute to the demand side, are not responsible for what happens there, and if enough follow suit, you will impact that industry. But as long as you return to the pump to buy, while complaining about the high prices, you still contribute to the demand & support that industry. Choices...

Of course everybody is free to criticise anything he/she likes, within the limits of the law & common customs. I too criticise things, but I try to be relevant & correct in what I say. I do believe in Hegel's thesis + antithesis --> synthesis view on developing knowledge, hence try to avoid saying incorrect or silly things, as that is not very useful.

It's not only questions we need, we mainly need sensible answers which are agreed upon. And needlessly questioning things will keep us from finding answers.

Choices + focus.

[Gerryman Ts125]

Well Alex, I'm delighted to finally hear someone else too saying population is the source of the problem. Meh

Btw, if earth exists for 24hours, I believe humans came about the last 2 minutes, not seconds. But it is not entirely clear where to put the boundary, I used Lucy, 6e6 years ago, and earth is 4.5e9 years old. The Cambrian explosion (of life) was about 6e8 years ago, so on a more sensible 24h clock of life we've been around the last quarter of an hour.
Anyway, the graph I showed earlier says it all

He's correct Carl Sagan and Ann Duran said so.They (well Carl did on Cosmos) That on a 24 hour clock , the planet and all the disturbance from the big bang 1 hour ,life began at six minutes, Dinosaurs appeared at 1 minute to midnight , The homo's appeared at 2 seconds to midnight.

He said 'Spacetime is a very recent construct, and we're all very lucky that we evolved at all' that scientist 's are incorrect in most of their assumptions until disproved by fellow scientific papers. .
And hopes we don't ruin such a nice 'Tiny Blue dot, all alone , a mote of dust suspended on a moonbeam.' Then he died happy.

As usual disproved by a paper

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... 1yiZLmdlQ0

Ps. They recently did a underwater dig, and when they filterd the contents of the grit.They found a TS 125 complete with a 1.5v battery.